European Refining & Petrochemical Market Outlook 2023
This report includes exclusive in-depth commentary, analysis, charts and graphs showing key pricing and broader market trends.
Download your copy for our experienced market editors' insights on what 2023 has in store for European refineries and prices on crude oil, carbon, jet fuel, sustainable aviation fuel, diesel, VLSFO, gasoline, naphtha, LPG, olefins and aromatics.
Key takeaways include:
- Shipping companies are negotiating and preparing to acquire emissions allowances, a move that will positively affect the EU carbon market.
- Supply of Russian-origin product to northwest Europe has fallen away following the invasion of Ukraine, instead moving to alternative destinations such as Albania, Turkey and India.
- High energy costs and inflation plus rising interest rates have weighed on industrial production margins and consumer demand, forcing benzene and other aromatics prices down.
- Soaring natural gas prices in Europe will impact supply, demand and profitability of styrene and toluene in 2023.
- European buyers could see more naphtha cargoes landing in Europe from Middle Eastern and west coast Indian loading terminals as these lose their traditional Asian outlets to Russian naphtha.
- With new refining capacity coming onstream in West Africa and a government desire to temper refined oil product import flows, a shift in key fundamentals of the European gasoline market may emerge in 2023.
- The IEA expects jet fuel to be the fastest growing oil product in 2023 with demand rising by 16%, mainly due to the ongoing recovery in air travel.
- Considering the impending Russian product embargo, the impact on demand from significant economic downturn and the cost-of-living crisis, some analysts have predicted that prices may go so high that diesel demand is shattered.
- A new tax on conventional marine fuels could impact supply and prices in 2023, although tax exemptions will apply to vessels that use sustainably produced alternative marine fuels.
- The elements for a viable commercial carbon-neutral hydrogen business model need to be put into place in 2023 to help scale up production and drive the market.