From the OPIS Renewable Energy, Solar, Biofuels and Carbon Editorial Teams
Washington voters on Tuesday will decide the fate of the state's cap-and-Invest
program ahead of what would be the program's second anniversary in January.
The program has been marked by allowance price volatility and rulemaking
updates as the state's Department of Ecology continues to make tweaks to
balance its potential impact on retail fuel prices and its role in helping the
state achieve its goals under the Climate Commitment Act.
Kate Haerizadeh, an OPIS policy analyst, said the program, should it survive
the referendum to end it, will depend on effective market adjustments and
linkage discussions.
"The Washington program's future could hinge not only on the ballot initiative
outcome but also on the state's ongoing rule adjustments to ensure market
stability. As the program matures and moves forward, balancing price
containment measures with demand driven auction outcomes will be key," she
said.
Allowance Prices
After the start of the program's first compliance period in January 2023, OPIS
assessed prices for the program's primary compliance instrument, Washington
Carbon Allowances, at about $45/metric ton based on secondary market activity.
OPIS assessed the WCA V23 December 2023 price at $43/mt through the first few
weeks of the program's life based on limited trade information for the contract
on the Nodal exchange. The first WCA auction occurred on Feb. 28 and signaled
robust demand.
The first quarterly auction held in Q1 2023 settled at $48.50/mt and sold out
of 6.2 million WCAs, according to Ecology. During a conference shortly after,
the department's climate commitment act implementation manager Luke Martland
told attendees the auction generated "dramatically more" revenue than the state
Legislature had projected.
Prices continued to rise and auction settlement prices jumped to $56.01/mt in
Q2 and $63.03/mt in Q3. Both settlement prices breached the auctions' Allowance
Price Containment Reserve Tier 1 price, triggering supplemental allowance
auctions that are built into the program to temper rapid increases in
compliance costs.
Amid the surge in demand, OPIS WCA price assessments, which reflect daily
trades on the secondary market, hit an all-time high of $70.50/mt for the OPIS
WCA current vintage forward contract on April 14, 2023.
Each of the APCR allowance auctions sold out, and Ecology implemented several
emergency rulemaking to inflate supply and relieve upward pressure on WCA
prices.
The first APCR sold out of 1.05 million allowances, and regulators in September
2023 enacted emergency rulemaking to allocate 5 million APCR allowances at the
second reserve auction scheduled for November 2023.
The initial APCR pool in 2023 was 3.16 million WCAs, or 5% of the total annual
budget of 63.3 million. Ahead of the APCR auctions in 2023, Ecology enacted
emergency rulemaking that clarified allowance holding limits, increased APCR
auction volumes and specified that allowances acquired through APCR auctions
must be deposited into an entity's compliance account.
The second APCR auction offered nearly five times the amount of WCAs available
in the first APCR auction, and only offered allowances priced at the Tier 1
price as opposed to two batches of allowances priced at both the Tier 1 and
2"Based on the auction results thus far, we determined that frontloading the
supply of allowances for the November APCR auction would increase market
stability by putting downward pressure on businesses' compliance costs,"
Ecology said in its September emergency rulemaking update.
The agency in December said it would allocate another 1 million reserve
allowances for 2024 under a new APCR schedule. Ecology said it adjusted the
APCR schedule to offer a potential 7 million APCR allowances in 2024. It said
all allowances offered at APCR auctions during the first compliance period,
which runs through 2026, would be at the $51.90/mt Tier 1 price, as opposed to
being split between the Tier 1 and $66.68/mt Tier 2 prices. The Tier 1 price
increases annually by 5% plus inflation.
These steps appeared to stem further jumps in allowance prices, as the Q4 2023
cap-and-invest auction in December sold out, but the price settled just one
cent below the APCR trigger threshold.
Initiative 2117
The rapid increase in allowance prices earlier in 2023 led to a ballot
initiative to repeal the state's Climate Commitment Act, which would
effectively end the Cap-and-Invest program.
Signatures for Initiative 2117 were collected late last year and the state in
January said the measure would appear on voters' ballots in November.
Washington voters will decide the emissions trading program's future in
Tuesday's general election.
WCA secondary market prices fell in the first quarter after the state said the
future of the program would be decided by voters.
In addition, the program had recently been saturated with uniformly priced
reserve allowances that could not be traded on the secondary market.
The uncertain future of the program led to bearish prices this year. OPIS
assessed the WCA V24 December 2024 price at an all-time low $29.50/mt on March
15. Throughout the year, a strong supply of credits and weaker auction demand
pushed quarterly auction settlements to close to the 2024 floor price of
$24.02/mt.
OPIS on Tuesday assessed the WCA V24 December 2024 price at $47/mt.
Voter support for the ballot question has fallen in the second half of the
year, according to polling data released in July, September and October.
Voter surveys in mid-October showed declining support for program repeal among
likely voters. According to SurveyUSA poll results published on Oct. 20 by the
Seattle Times, 48% of respondents said they would vote against the initiative
and 30% said they would vote to repeal the program. Twenty-two percent of those
responding said they were undecided.
The poll of 703 likely voters was conducted Oct. 9-14 and sponsored by the
newspaper, Seattle television station KING 5 and the University of Washington's
Center for an Informed Public.
A similar SurveyUSA poll conducted in July showed 34% of likely voters said
they would vote against repeal and 48% said they would vote to end the program.
The remaining 18% described themselves as uncertain.
A separate poll of 403 registered state voters, conducted from Sept. 3-6,
showed support for repeal had weakened to 30% from 41% in May, according to
nonpartisan media group Cascade PBS/Elway.
The referendum "would prohibit state agencies from imposing any type of carbon
tax credit trading, and repeal legislation establishing a cap-and-invest
program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This measure would decrease funding
for investments in transportation, clean air, renewable energy, conservation,
and emissions-reduction."
A "yes" vote would repeal the law that established the program and would
prohibit the state from enacting similar emissions cap-and-trade markets.
The September poll showed 46% of respondents would vote against repeal, up from
31% in May, and 24% of respondents were "undecided," down from 28% in
May.Washington's secretary of state in October released arguments for and
against the referendum.
Supporters of a repeal argue the program is an "expensive, unfair and wasteful
CO2 tax." Program opponents said the "CO2 tax added nearly 40cts per gallon at
the pump, making Washington's fuel some of the most expensive in the
nation."Supporters of the program argued that the referendum was "purposely
misleading" and "a threat to [Washington's] air, land and water." They also
said the initiative would "cut one-third of funding for [Washington's] already
stretched transportation plan."
Washington's retail unleaded fuel prices have fluctuated in recent years.
The average price for regular gasoline in the state was $3.573/gal in 2021, or
54.6cts above the U.S. average, according to OPIS retail fuel price data. That
premium climbed to 74cts in 2022, when gasoline prices in the state averaged
$4.722/gal.
In 2023, the year the cap-and-invest program took effect, the average retail
price for gasoline in the state was $4.593/gal, $1.052 above the national
average.
From January through October, the state's average premium to the national price
was 87.53cts/gal.
Linkage Discussions
Despite the possibility of repeal, Ecology has been focused on the program's
future that could include a linkage with California and Quebec's cap-and-trade
program under the Western Climate Initiative.
California, Québec and Washington in March said they were exploring a linkage
of their carbon markets. This was the acknowledgement that the three
jurisdictions were working to link after Washington said it intended to pursue
such an arrangement in November 2023. California and Québec linked their
markets in 2014.
Ecology regulators said linkage could add price stability and support program
longevity.
"Our analysis shows that if a linkage were to occur by 2027, Washington (and
WCI) allowance price would trade at the APCR tier 1 level. However, without a
linkage Washington allowance would be trading at the price ceiling level by
2027," Ecology said when it announced plans to pursue combining its program
with the others.
A linked program would hold joint auctions of allowances that could be used for
compliance in California, Washington and Québec and would be tradable across
jurisdictions. The linked market would have a uniform allowance price.
In April, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee signed a bill (S.B. 6058) that would
facilitate linking the state's carbon emissions market with the California and
Québec program.
Legislative changes to the program include adjusted compliance periods,
increased allowance purchase limits and new rules on offset use, among other
language submitted by Ecology in the fall of 2023.
The three jurisdictions in late September said they were making progress toward
an agreement, adding that a deal to join the programs could be finalized as
early as next spring.
"We believe linkage will strengthen our respective efforts to fight climate
change and reduce air pollution, while also encouraging more governments to
adopt scalable, market-based climate policies in the future," the three
jurisdictions said.
An OPIS analysis found that a move to link Washington's program with California
and Québec's could bring regional price stability and enable allowance trading
across borders, therefore establishing a broader and multi-jurisdictional
carbon market.
"This integration does, however, require a consistent regulatory framework to
prevent destabilizing market shocks going forward."
Amid the linkage discussions, WCA and CCA secondary market prices alternated
between a discount and a premium to one another during the past year.
OPIS WCA assessment prices fell below CCA prices in January before briefly
surpassing OPIS CCA prices in July and again in early September.
CCA and WCA prices in late September averaged near the same level, before WCAs
strengthened in secondary market trade this past month. Thus far in October
2024, the OPIS WCA V24 December 2024 price has averaged $45.862/mt while the
matching CCA price averaged $37.330/mt.
"The fluctuating relationship between WCA and CCA prices underscores the
market's sensitivity to local regulatory changes, trading volumes, and also the
unique compliance dynamics in Washington state," Haerizadeh said.
OPIS assessed the WCA V24 December 2024 price at $47/mt on Tuesday, and the CCA
V24 December 2024 price at $37.015/mt.
What's Next
Ecology has said it will continue to operate the program until it receives
direction based on the results of Tuesday's vote. If a repeal vote succeeds,
the initiative would take effect on Dec. 5 and would effectively cancel the
results of the fourth-quarter allowance auction scheduled for Dec. 4.
"Unless I-2117 passes and takes effect, Ecology will continue implementing the
Climate Commitment Act and the Cap-and-Invest Program as it currently stands,
including holding all scheduled auctions and enforcing all compliance
deadlines," the agency said in July.
If the program is ended by voters, Ecology said it would no longer have
authority provided under the repealed provisions. The referendum would not
affect statutes governing Ecology's Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, and the
department would continue implementing that program.
The agency last week provided an update on entities' access to the Compliance
Instrument Tracking System Service platform should the initiative pass.
Ecology said it would take at least three months to withdraw from the CITSS if
the program is repealed and expects that the platform would remain accessible
over that period.
Ultimately, the program's first two years were highlighted by
stronger-than-expected initial allowance demand, frequent regulatory responses
to adjust supply level and a public response to a perceived increase in fuel
prices.
"Washington's Cap-and-Invest program is at a pivotal moment as it is balancing
climate goals with the challenges of market stability and affordability,"
Haerizadeh said. "The outcome of the upcoming vote will both determine the
program's future and could even influence whether or not other states consider
integrating carbon markets as a viable tool for emissions reduction."
Reporting by Slade Rand, srand@opisnet.com
Editing by Kylee West, kwest@opisnet.com and Jeff Barber jbarber@opisnet.com
© 2024 Oil Price Information Service, LLC. All rights reserved.
Montana Renewables (MRL) and Delta Air Lines have introduced the use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in Michigan as a 7,000+-gal shipment of SAF has been transported to the Detroit Metropolitan Airport (DTW), the companies said in a Thursday release.
"Supplying the SAF [to the Detroit Metropolitan Airport] marks another significant milestone in the decarbonization of air travel," said MRL Chief Executive Bruce Fleming.
MRL refined and blended Minnesota and North Dakota-grown winter camelina into SAF after receiving the feedstock from Cargill. MRL subsequently sold the SAF directly to Delta Air Lines, and the airline fuel then arrived to DTW via pipeline from Dearborn, Michigan's Buckeye Pipeline facility.
"We are especially pleased to pioneer camelina oil as a non-food renewable that provides additional cash crop potential for farmers," Fleming said.
MRL -- an unrestricted subsidiary of Calumet and renewable fuels company headquartered in Great Falls, Montana -- is currently the largest SAF producer in North America, the company said. SAF can reduce lifecycle carbon emissions of jet fuel by more than 80% compared to conventional jet fuel, according to the International Air Transport Association.
In September, the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport also received its first 7,000-gallon shipment of camelina-feedstock SAF to be used for Delta Air Lines' commercial flights.
Reporting by Maura Hossler, mhossler@opisnet.com
Editing by Jordan Godwin, jgodwin@opisnet.com
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India's government has approved a list of ten sectors to participate in its voluntary carbon market under the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), including energy, agriculture and forestry, according to a notice from the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) dated Sept. 20 and published on Oct. 15.
Six sectors have been approved for the first phase, namely energy, industry, waste, agriculture, forestry, and transport, in line with recommendations from the market's steering committee. Examples of technologies covered in each sector include:
- Energy: Green hydrogen production via electrolysis or biomass, energy efficiency in lime production, compressed biogas, renewable energy with storage and offshore wind.
- Industry: Green ammonia usage and feedstock switches in ammonia-urea manufacturing.
- Waste: Biochar production and landfill gas capture.
- Agriculture: Systematic rice intensification, biochar, and agroforestry.
- Forestry: Afforestation and institutional forestry.
- Transport: Modal shift and electric vehicles.
A second phase will include construction, fugitive emissions from fuels and industrial gases, solvent use, and carbon capture and storage (CCUS).
The BEE, which oversees offset methodology development under the CCTS, said in its notice that it would publish sectoral scope and methodologies from "time to time" after approval from the central government.
In response, the Carbon Removal India Alliance (CRIA) on Oct. 19 welcomed the inclusion of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies such as biochar and agroforestry, describing it as India's "first acknowledgment and inclusion of any CDR methods under the ICM regime."
The Carbon Markets Association of India (CMAI) also cited the BEE notice as a milestone in operationalizing the country's offset market by defining sector scopes.
The CCTS, first announced in 2023, is expected to launch carbon credit trading in 2026. The market will involve both compliance and voluntary mechanisms. Non-obligated entities can register projects that reduce or avoid emissions and earn Carbon Credit Certificates (CCCs) to trade on power exchanges, as OPIS earlier reported.
Under the compliance mechanism, nine energy-intensive sectors, including aluminum, cement, and steel, are being considered for mandatory greenhouse gas emission intensity targets. Entities exceeding greenhouse gas emissions intensity targets will earn credits, while those failing must purchase certificates to cover the shortfall.
Reporting by Melissa Goh, mgoh@opisnet.com
Editing by Lujia Wang, lwang@opisnet.com
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New draft rules for Washington state carbon offset credits show the state is maintaining a tight approach to verification and environmental justice in the emissions offsets market.
Regulators on Tuesday published full draft rule language for Cap-and-Invest offsets rulemaking ahead of public meetings later this month. The state Department of Ecology would operate the offsets market more strictly than other compliance offset markets, according to OPIS analysis, highlighted by a focus
on direct environmental benefits to the state (DEBS) and State Environmental Policy Act (SEPA) compliance in the draft rulemaking.
The new draft lays out rules to "ensure an offset credit can be used as a compliance instrument" in Washington state. Full language is available on the Ecology website.
According to OPIS policy analyst Kate Haerizadeh, the new draft rules underscore Washington state's more stringent regulatory approach compared to California's. Stronger verification processes included in this draft, along with other rules like the requirement that Ecology credits provide DEBS, could lead to a tighter supply of Washington offset credits.
"I believe pricing may reflect the reduced availability of credits and potentially increased demand from industries needing compliance flexibility, and overall be influenced by the stricter requirements," Haerizadeh said.
Haerizadeh noted the Ecology offset program will expand as more sectors are included, but that the draft rulemaking does not mention future market stability or collaboration with the Western Climate Initiative (WCI).
"Instead, the focus was on Washington regulating even more stringently than California, underscoring the state's current independent approach," the analyst said.
OPIS on Wednesday assessed benchmark California Carbon Offset (CCO) prices at $15.70/mt for the CCO-3, $15.55/mt for the CCO-8 and $15.95/mt for the Golden CCO. DEBS offset credits were assessed at a $15.10/mt premium to non-DEBS credits.
The new rules also introduce stricter compliance with the State Environmental Policy Act (SEPA), specifically in avoiding future harm to the environment due to offset projects.
"When analysis under [SEPA] is required for an offset project, a project-level SEPA analysis finding no significant adverse environmental impact after mitigation fulfills this requirement," according to the draft rule.
Haerizadeh said the draft also provides "tougher rules" for third party project verification and credit invalidation should projects not meet standards.
Ecology will host a public meeting specifically on Environmental Justice and the rulemaking on Oct. 21. Haerizadeh said the draft rules emphasize protecting tribal and low-income communities, with provisions for additional Environmental Justice sessions.
Washington regulations also call for reduced usage of offset credits for compliance obligations compared to California. The rule initially caps offset usage at 5% through 2030, before a gradual decrease "pushing for more direct emissions reductions," Haerizadeh said.
Compliance entities may use offsets for up to 5% of their obligation until 2030, but starting in 2026 that percentage begins to decrease. The general offset limit falls to 4%, though entities are then able to use offsets generated on tribal land for an additional 2% of their obligation.
"The general offset limit remains at 5% until 2030, but starting in 2026, it decreases to 4% for non-tribal offsets. However, entities can use an additional 2% from tribal projects, allowing for some flexibility and bringing the total possible offset usage to 6%," Haerizadeh said.
The rulemaking allows for expansion of project types, and also provides new specifics for the Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) protocol Ecology plans to adapt.
Changes to the ODS protocol, according to OPIS analysis, include updates to new accounting values, expansion of eligible aerosol ODS sources and revised emissions factors in line with new Environmental Protection Agency data.
"The ODS protocol revisions modernize GHG accounting by adopting AR5 values (instead of AR4) and expanding eligibility, but this will likely reduce the number of credits generated," Haerizadeh said.
The expansion of eligible ODS supplies include federal sources and medical aerosols, but the rules indicate it will be a highly regulated expansion of these sources according to Haerizadeh. The new protocols allow for regular program updates based on new EPA data, and the ODS rules have stricter requirements for transparency and accuracy, Haerizadeh said.
Ecology in March 2023 approved both the American Carbon Registry and Climate Action Reserve as cap-and-invest offset project registries. Ecology issued its first offset credits in December 2023 to two ODS projects, ahead of a smaller issuance in Feb. 2024 to another ODS project.
Reporting by Slade Rand, srand@opisnet.com
Editing by Kylee West kwest@opisnet.com
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Delaware will receive $14.3 million in federal money to build medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicle charging infrastructure along the I-95 corridor in the state, EPA said on Thursday.
The EPA Climate Pollution Reduction Grant money was provided under the Inflation Reduction Act and supports the Biden administration's efforts to build EV charging infrastructure along the nation's major highways, EPA said.
The I-95 corridor, which runs 1,924 miles from Florida to Maine, is among the most heavily traveled roads on the East Coast.
Twenty-three miles of the highway run through Delaware, the second-shortest segment after the 16 miles in New Hampshire. The Delaware House Service Area in Newark is the only rest area on the state's portion of the highway.
Adam Ortiz, EPA regional administrator for the Mid-Atlantic, called the grant "a critical down payment for zero-emission freight movement in participating states."
Delaware is part of the Clean Corridor Coalition, a group of states that also includes New Jersey, Connecticut and Maryland. The group is expected to receive $250 million in EPA funding for EV charging infrastructure for commercial zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles along the corridor, according to EPA.
Plans call for development of 20 freight truck charging infrastructure sites along the corridor that will include about 148 ports suitable for overnight use, 164 fast charging ports, and 138 ultra-fast charging ports, according to EPA.
Reporting by Steve Cronin, scronin@opisnet.com
Editing by Jeff Barber, jbarber@opisnet.com
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India's Jupiter International is staying close to its roots as a solar cell manufacturer even as it embarks on vertical integration to navigate the country's new solar landscape, according to the company's CEO, Dhurv Sharma, during an OPIS interview at the Renewable Energy India Expo on Oct. 3.
The company has long been India's largest pure play solar cell producer with an 800-megawatt (MW) facility at its Himachal Pradesh stronghold in northern India. But come next April, it would have added 1.4 gigawatts (GW) of module capacity from a new joint-venture Odisha plant in eastern India. Its total module capacity is then expected to rise to 2.8 GW in September and to 4.8 GW in December 2026. By then, the company's cell capacity would have risen to 7 GW with another 3 GW of wafer capacity added further upstream.
"We still want to be largely a cell manufacturer but with a lot of command on cell technology and some integration into quality module manufacturing," Sharma said.
Even with the new integration plans, Jupiter's cell capacity would still be significantly higher than its module capacity, Sharma noted. The company is also already in discussions to sell solar cells from its 2026 capacity to other module manufacturers, he added.
So why take the drastic step of expanding into the modules segment in the first place?
Sharma, a longtime advocate for Indian solar manufacturing, has been with Jupiter from the beginning when the company set up its first cell facility in 2009 with a capacity of just 32 MW. In the years since, Sharma has focused on expanding the company's cell capacity without extending into the upstream or downstream segments.
But the regulatory landscape in India's solar industry has undergone a sea change in the past two years. After having spent the better part of the 2010s rallying industry peers and government officials to better support Indian solar manufacturers against low-priced imports from China, Sharma now sees clear government support for the local industry, setting the stage for a new era of aggressive capacity expansion by domestic manufacturers.
"The government of India today...is willing to protect domestic manufacturing against the asset deflation that China is exporting in the solar context. We now have a clear understanding that the government wants to enable a larger solar manufacturing base," Sharma said.
Over the past two years, the Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS marker for FOB China module prices, has fallen from $0.265/wp to $0.09/wp as of Oct. 1. While the price deflation is a boon to project developers, it is also a bane to domestic solar manufacturers unable to compete with Chinese imports in the absence of government support.
India currently has a slew of trade measures and incentive schemes to support its domestic solar manufacturers, including a 40% basic customs duty and an Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM), an exclusionary list from which government projects can only source their modules.
Ensuring the "demand visibility" that ALMM provides is very important for local manufacturers, Sharma said. Based on the balance sheets of listed companies in China, Chinese solar manufacturers are selling modules at a loss despite their large capacities, he noted.
"Circumstances like these require multiple support packages (for the domestic industry). It cannot be a very simple approach," Sharma said.
Despite the improved government support for domestic manufacturers, Sharma remains mindful of the price volatility and crashes that have besieged the solar industry in recent years. Vertically integrating into the module and wafer segments is a way to "protect and de-risk the business", he said.
The solar veteran, perhaps untypically, also tends to shy away from the hyperbolic talk normally associated with a burgeoning industry -- even his assessment of solar cell technologies is measured. At a time when Chinese manufacturers have switched en masse to the newer TOPCon cell technology, Sharma still sees value in the previous incumbent Mono PERC technology.
In Sharma's view, the switch to TOPCon technology happened very quickly at a time when the solar industry was distressed with price falls and overcapacity.
"In normal circumstances it takes a while for new technologies to mature and be adopted. But companies have rushed into adoption and mainstreaming of the Topcon technology, whether due to competitive pressure or combination of various factors.," Sharma said.
"If I had to take a decision today (on whether to use TOPCon in a project), I would be happy to push it off by another five to six months," he added.
Jupiter's new solar projects, the first of which is scheduled to be ready in five to six months time, will be based on TOPCon technology.
In keeping with the theme of hewing close to its roots, Jupiter will not be focusing on overseas markets for now despite growing Indian solar exports to the US.
"Ideally, producers who manufacture at where the market is are the ones who will succeed. And for us, that is India," Sharma said.
Reporting by Hanwei Wu, hwu@opisnet.com
Editing by Lujia Wang, lwang@opisnet.com
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The British government is committing "up to £21.7 billion" ($28.57 billion) over the next 25 years to fund two carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) clusters in the northeast and northwest parts of England, a decision that could pave the way for 8.5 million tons of carbon emissions being sequestered each year.
The funding will go towards carbon capture projects in the East Coast Cluster in northeast England and the HyNet cluster in northwest England and north Wales.
The former is expected to capture emissions from the Phillips 66-operated 221,000-b/d Humber refinery and the Prax-operated 113,000-b/d Lindsey refinery, while the HyNet cluster includes a project to capture emissions from the Essar Oil-operated 200,000-b/d Stanlow oil refinery.
The government said the multi-billion pound funding would create 4,000 jobs and support up to 50,000 jobs in the long-term.
The East Coast Cluster is a collaboration between six different energy companies, including BP, Eni, Equinor, National Grid, Shell and TotalEnergies.
The HyNet cluster could reduce carbon emissions by up to 10 million tons a year, according to the HyNet Alliance, which comprises several companies including Heidelberg Materials, Cargill, Engie and Ineos, among others.
The Carbon Capture and Storage Association trade body welcomed the government's commitment, with Olivia Powis, the CCSA's chief executive, noting that this would help the country's journey towards net zero.
The funding "means that we can deliver thousands of new highly skilled jobs whilst reducing our carbon dioxide emissions and retaining existing jobs in our industrial areas in critical industries like cement, chemicals and manufacturing across the UK," Powis said in a statement Friday.
There is strong cross-party political support for CCUS in the U.K., and the investment announced by the new Labour-led British government is similar in scale to the £20 billion of support over 20 years promised by the last Conservative administration in 2023.
Developing the CCUS clusters dovetails with the new government's emphasis on boosting economic growth and construction work across several economic sectors.
The country's new chancellor, Rachel Reeves, wrote in the Guardian newspaper on Friday that CCUS is a "gamechanging technology" representing "a major success story for British industry" that would also result in "jobs in the supply chain, such as pipe welders, mechanical engineers, site managers and surveyors."
Delay to CCS Projects Could Boost Carbon Prices
The British government has set a target to capture 20-30 million mt of carbon by 2030, with four clusters operational by the end of the decade. Meeting that goal would result in the capture of carbon equivalent to a quarter of the 96.8 million mt emitted last year by installations and airlines subject to the UK's Emissions Trading System.
Capturing upwards of 30 million mt of carbon every year would consequently put a significant dent in demand for UK emissions allowances (UKA), the pollution permits which must be purchased by industrial emitters covered by the cap-and-trade ETS.
But delays in bringing CCS projects online could have expensive ramifications later in the decade and into the 2030s for those emitters, especially polluters that are unable to pass the full cost of carbon onto end-consumers. In that CCS-delayed scenario, demand for UKAs will be higher than expected, while the number of annual allowances available for purchase in the ETS will have shrunk.
British carbon prices have been in the doldrums for more than a year and on a downward slide for two years. OPIS assessed the benchmark December 2024 UK emissions allowance at £36.32 ($47.59) on Thursday, far below the record settle of £97.75 on August 19, 2022, but most analysts forecast that prices will be in triple digits by the end of the decade.
Such a price would force the country's largest installations to spend almost half a billion pounds a year on UKAs if they do not decarbonize.
Reporting by Humberto J. Rocha, hrocha@opisnet.com
Editing by Anthony Lane, alane@opisnet.com
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US attorneys and the Federal Bureau of Investigation have charged former executives of CQC Impact Investors with alleged criminal fraud for manipulating cookstove carbon project data to inflate credit issuances and secure an investment of more than $100 million, the Department of Justice announced
Wednesday.
The charges were brought against former CQC CEO Ken Newcombe and former CQC Chief of Carbon and Sustainability Accounting Tridip Goswami.
CQC is also known as C-Quest Capital.
Both allegedly manipulated data from their former company's Africa-based cookstove projects in order to issue millions of carbon credits that did not represent real emissions reductions. Newcombe was also accused of using manipulated data to obtain an investment in CQC of up to $250 million, DOJ said
in a news release.
Former CQC COO Jason Steele cooperated with law enforcement and pleaded guilty to three fraud charges "in connection with the conduct," according to the release.
In a statement Thursday, a spokesperson for Newcombe denied the charges. Goswami could not be immediately reached for comment.
Southern District of New York US Attorney Damian Williams said in the release that the "alleged actions of the defendants and their co-conspirators risked undermining the integrity of [the voluntary carbon market], which is an important part of the fight against climate change. Protecting the sanctity and
integrity of the financial markets continues to be a cornerstone initiative for this office, and we will continue to be vigilant in rooting out fraud in the market for carbon credits."
US attorneys declined to charge CQC itself because the company "truthfully and completely disclosed all criminal conduct in which officers, employees and agents of CQC had been engaged promptly after becoming aware of it," DOJ said.
Allegations of the cookstove project data manipulation were announced in June by CQC. The company said in June it had "uncovered wrongdoing" by Newcombe "that resulted in the over-issuance of millions of carbon credits ... in connection with its clean cooking programs registered with the carbon credit registry Verra."
Newcombe had previously stepped down from his role in February and was succeeded by Jules Kortenhorst, a former partner at private equity firm Vision Ridge, one of CQC's minority investors.
CQC said in June it had informed US law enforcement of wrongdoing. It also pledged to cancel the credits it had been improperly issued and revamp its monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) processes as a result.
Verra, in turn, suspended the company's 27 projects registered with the standard and launched its own investigation into the matter, the organization said at the time.
Following the announcement, a spokesperson for Newcombe denied the allegations and said they were "part of a coordinated scheme" by Vision Ridge "to coerce Dr. Newcombe into giving up his majority shareholding in C-Quest Capital."
The Washington Post, citing anonymous sources at CQC, reported in September that it was Newcombe and "others" who had initially identified the over-issuances.
"Newcombe pushed for reforms, including a 'more reliable measurement-based surveying approach, suspending crediting processes and re-training staff,'" the Post reported, citing Newcombe's spokesperson.
Cookstove carbon projects operate by providing devices to households that use emissions-heavy means, such as burning charcoal in open fires, to prepare their food. To verify and validate their emissions reductions, CQC surveyed cookstove recipients about the use of their devices.
DOJ said on Wednesday that in 2020, Newcombe "set a new direction for CQC and decided to rapidly and aggressively increase the size" of its projects. In order to hit expansion goals, "CQC had to rely on partners that did poor work installing stoves; installed stoves in locations that were outside of a
project's scope" and at times "claimed to install stoves that were never installed," DOJ said.
Survey data collected to verify projects' emissions reductions indicated that the projects were roughly half as effective as the company hoped. In internal communications between Newcombe, Steele and Goswami, the latter suggested they "revise" the survey results, DOJ said.
DOJ alleged that ultimately, "Newcombe, Goswami and Steele agreed to manipulate the survey data for the Malawi and Zambia projects and enlist a person from outside CQC to fill out fraudulent survey forms to reflect the manipulated numbers."
Newcombe's spokesperson said in the most recent statement that the 77-year-old Newcombe is dying of cancer.
Knowing that the DOJ case "will likely be a futile exercise resulting in dismissal and knowing that its futile filing could hasten his death, one can fairly wonder whether the word Justice is still fairly included in its name," they said.
Cookstove Credits, Suspected of Over-Issuances, Trade at a Discount
In recent years, numerous carbon credit project types have been criticized for engaging in lax MRV. A study published in Nature Sustainability in July 2023 found that cookstove projects overestimated their emissions reductions by a factor of 9.2.
This alleged lack of integrity has caused the credits produced by cookstove credits to trade at a discount to others in the market, sources have told OPIS. On Thursday, OPIS heard offers for vintage 2022 credits from Africa-based projects in the range of $3.50/metric ton to $4/mt.
The offers were still stronger than the weakest offers for REDD+ forestry credits, a project type that has also been accused of over-crediting. V16 credits from an Asia-based REDD+ project were heard offered as low as 40cts/mt on Thursday.
Still, these offer indications fall well below OPIS assessment averages, which take into account the full range of price indicators in the market. The OPIS REDD+ V22 Credits Average was calculated at $9.25/mt on Wednesday.
Nature-based removal credits, such as those issued by afforestation, reforestation and revegetation (ARR) and blue carbon projects, which restore coastal environments, trade stronger still.
OPIS calculated the ARR V22 Credits Average at $22.177/mt and the Blue Carbon V22 Credits Average at $29.677/mt on Wednesday.
Reporting by Henry Kronk, hkronk@opisnet.com
Editing by Bridget Hunsucker, bhunsucker@opisnet.com
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Uniper's Ratcliffe-on-Soar power plant, the last coal-fired facility in the United Kingdom, is closing today. The plant began operating in 1968. With the closure, UK becomes the first of the G7 economies to completely eliminate coal from its electricity generation.
Many of the 170 employees will stay on to dismantle the infrastructure over the next two years, said owner Uniper to the media.
“(The plant's closure) marks the end of an era and coal workers can be rightly proud of their work powering our country for over 140 years. We owe generations a debt of gratitude as a country,” Energy Minister Michael Shanks said in a statement.
The plant had a generating capacity of 2 GW and supplied electricity to two million homes. The last delivery of coal, about 15,000 tonnes, arrived by train last June.
The UK imported 49,700 t of thermal coal in 2023 compared to 0.14 mt in 2022, 0.19 in 2021 and 0.59 mt in 2020.
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Tightening EU climate regulations are expected to catalyze stronger global carbon policies, with policy certainty crucial for building confidence in investing in transition technologies and initiatives, panelists said on Wednesday during a discussion hosted by OPIS, a Dow Jones company, at the Wall Street Journal's Journal House in Singapore.
Evolving EU climate policy, particularly the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) that seeks to level the carbon emission costs for products imported into the EU, will have a material impact on major EU exporters such as China and India.
This has intensified efforts to establish robust carbon pricing outside the EU, encouraging countries to strengthen their own emission trading schemes (ETS), said Vidur Nayar, Head of Environmental Trading Asia-Pacific at Hartree Partners, who described CBAM and its ramifications as the "ultimate climate chess game".
Examples of countries' responses to CBAM include China's recent inclusion of the cement and aluminum sectors in its ETS, aligning with the sector coverage under CBAM, and South Korea's preparation of trade-exposed companies for EU regulations ahead of implementation.
Nayar believes the intent of the EU regulations is to spur climate actions in other countries rather than impose additional taxes on products. However, it has triggered diplomatic responses, as seen by Turkey's proposal to join BRICS.
On a corporate level, companies outside of the EU need to take proactive steps to enhance their reporting, disclosure, and putting forward contracts to ensure readiness and alignment with the CBAM tariff and the EU ETS price, said Jaclyn Dove, Global Head of Sustainable Finance Strategic Initiatives at Standard Chartered.
This, however, would not necessarily lead to a significant inflow of EU Allowances or CBAM certificates into the EU, as countries would prefer to retain and use their carbon revenues within their own regions, added Nayar.
The opportunity also lies in companies shaping policies in their home countries, allowing them to influence how these evolve, align incentives with their interests, and position themselves to address challenges, said Dale Hardcastle, Global Head of Carbon Markets at Bain & Company.
Panels meanwhile underscored the importance of policy and regulatory certainty in enabling companies and investors to make informed decisions, commit resources, and drive the necessary investment and transition efforts.
Hardcastle pointed out that policy uncertainty is a key factor that could hold back the ability to scale up finance and move forward with the next stages of projects.
There is sufficient green finance available, but the challenge is scaling it up to meet investment needs and direct capital where it's most required for scalability, added Dove. Achieving net-zero ambitions will necessitate global collaboration, involving both public and private capital, with policymakers facilitating essential regulations and capital flows.
Nayar added that the lack of policy certainty has been a challenge, but he believes CBAM is bringing the conversation "front and center" and helping to strengthen ETS and climate finance initiatives.
The markets need to iteratively develop policies that will not be perfect on day one, and all these need to be improved over time; what companies and corporations are looking for most is regulatory certainty and a clear pathway, he said.
"From my perspective, any increase in pricing or internal carbon pricing that CBAM does result in, allows better investment decisions and unlocks green finance over a longer period," said Nayar.
The panel session, hosted by OPIS, was part of a two-day Journal House event organized by The Wall Street Journal. Watch the recordings of both OPIS panel sessions:
"The Growing Reach of Emissions Rules"
"New Dynamics of Solar"
Find the complete Journal House Singapore program and recordings here.
Reporting by Lujia Wang, lwang@opisnet.com
Editing by Hanwei Wu, hwu@opisnet.com
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China has launched a public consultation on expanding the national emissions trading scheme (ETS) to include sectors such as cement, steel, and electrolytic aluminum, with emissions coverage to start from 2024, according to a notice from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) on Sept. 8.
China's ETS was launched in July 2021 to cover only power generation entities, accounting for around 5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) emissions annually.
With the inclusion of the new sectors starting from the compliance year 2024, the national ETS would cover about 60% of China's total emissions, according to the MEE.
Around 1,500 new key emitting entities will be added, covering an additional 3 billion tCO2e of emissions, MEE noted. Like the power sector, entities emitting over 26,000 tCO2e/year will be included.
Free allowances will be allocated to newly covered sectors based on emission intensity, with the overall allocation mostly aligned with actual emissions over the first two to three years to provide time for capacity building, the MEE said.
The MEE's explanatory note highlighted that the national ETS has not yet met expectations as a market mechanism, primarily due to low activity and a lack of diverse participants, and it falls behind more established markets like the EU's ETS.
Between 2022 and 2023, 263 million metric tons of Chinese Emission Allowances (CEAs) were traded, marking a 47% increase from the first cycle. However, this volume remains significantly below the total covered emissions for compliance years 2021 and 2022, which exceeded 10 billion tCO2e.
The CEA last closed at 89.98 yuan per metric tons (mt) ($13.08/mt) on Monday, according to Shanghai Environmental and Energy Exchange data.
The first compliance deadline for the three sectors will be at the end of 2025. The consultation will close on September 19.
($1 = CNY 7.10)
Reporting by Lujia Wang, lwang@opisnet.com
Editing by Hanwei Wu, hwu@opisnet.com
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The voluntary carbon market (VCM) with access to international trading would be a more suitable option to facilitate blue carbon projects in New Zealand, than the country's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), initial findings from a government-commissioned report released on Sept. 3 outlined.
Funded by the Nature Conservancy Aotearoa New Zealand and the Ministry for the Environment, the report emphasizes the greater flexibility and financial viability of the VCM for blue carbon projects, which focus on the carbon sequestration potential of ecosystems such as salt marshes, seagrass, and
mangroves.
Authors noted that the voluntary carbon market is more likely to facilitate the development of blue carbon projects at scale by creating high-integrity carbon credits potentially holding a premium and access to a large pool of credit buyers. Verification through international registries such as Verra would enable integration with standards such as the ICVCM Core Carbon Principles.
This is compared to the NZ ETS, which despite having benefits such as more stable price signals and potentially lower costs, holds risks including existing price controls, an oversupply of New Zealand Units, and lack of accountability of co-benefits, according to the report.
OPIS last assessed the scheme's NZU at NZ$62.08/mt ($38.46/mt) on Thursday. International vintage 2024 blue carbon units, registered under registries including the American Carbon Registry, Climate Action Reserve, Gold Standard, and Verra, were marked at an average of $30.76/mt.
However, the report urged the development of a national strategy to scale blue carbon projects, with the government providing clarity about Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and whether carbon credits can be sold overseas to enable the voluntary market.
"Addressing policy barriers and creating an enabling environment has the potential to accelerate pilot projects already underway in New Zealand and support the uptake of blue carbon projects in New Zealand for the international voluntary market, at scale," said Olya Albot, project manager for nature-based solutions at The Nature Conservancy Aotearoa New Zealand.
The authors also recommended a Maori-led study into the barriers and opportunities for blue carbon projects, with the indigenous group having roles as land owners and customary title owners of coastal marine areas.
Reporting by Melissa Goh, mgoh@opisnet.com
Editing by Chuan Ong, cong@opisnet.com
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No bids were placed in Wednesday's September quarterly New Zealand emissions unit (NZU) auction, leaving all 7.6 million NZUs unsold and rolled over to the year's final auction on December 4.
This marks the second straight auction without any participation, following the June 2024 auction, the first on record with no bids. Since March 2023, NZU auctions have struggled to fully clear, with only the March 2024 auction selling a portion of the available units.
The latest result was in line with market expectations, as the auction floor price of NZ$64/mt -- the minimum price at which NZUs can be sold -- remains higher than secondary market prices, despite a recent uptick.
In August, New Zealand announced it would halve the supply of NZUs available through its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) while maintaining price control settings, which triggered a surge in spot prices. NZUs were last assessed by OPIS at NZ$61.73/mt on Tuesday, a 15.4% increase month to month.
Many market participants have noted that with supply forthcoming at these levels, buying at NZ$64 at auction did not appear to be a rational course of action, trading platform Carbon Match said in an update, seeing little interest despite a reduced supply of six million units to be offered across the whole of 2025.
All 3.525 million units offered in the September auction, along with 4.075 million unsold units rolled over from the March and June auctions, will be carried forward to the next auction on Dec. 4. Unsold units are not carried forward into the following calendar year, as seen in 2023 when 23 million units
were effectively removed from the market.
Following the auction, NZU prices rose, with the most recent trades at NZ$62.25/mt on major platforms around midday, still NZ$1.75/mt below the auction price floor but 52 cents higher than the OPIS assessment on Tuesday.
Reporting by Melissa Goh, mgoh@opisnet.com; Chuan Ong, cong@opisnet.com
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China has listed on Monday the first Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) projects for public consultation, around eight months after the relaunch of the Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) scheme in January.
The interim registry operator, the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation (NCSC), began accepting project registration applications on Aug. 23, OPIS reported earlier. The CCER was previously suspended in 2017 after a five-year run.
A total of 33 projects have been listed on the CCER registry across all four methodologies currently available, that are expected to generate 9.67 million metric tons (mt) of carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e) per year or 96.43 million tCO2e in total, registry data showed.
A total of 19 grid-connected offshore wind power projects have been listed, expected to generate 8.97 million tCO2e/year of emission reductions or 85.28 million tCO2e in total. Additionally, 8 afforestation carbon sink projects are listed, projected to generate 249,389 tCO2e/year or 6.55 million tCO2e. Four
distributed grid-connected solar thermal projects are expected to produce 451,757 tCO2e/year, totaling 4.52 million tCO2e. The remaining 2 projects involve mangrove creation, estimated to reduce emissions by 2,805 tCO2e/year, totaling 77,795 tCO2e.
The crediting period for these projects spans from 2020 to 2023, with annual reductions of 17.83 million tCO2e, 27.17 million tCO2e, 49.66 million tCO2e, and 1.78 million tCO2e, respectively.
Under the current regulation, CCERs can offset compliance obligations under the national emission trading scheme (ETS), with a cap of 5%. Although CCERs issued before March 14, 2017, are still in circulation, they will no longer be eligible for compliance obligations starting in 2025.
The public consultation period for the project design document is 20 working days.
Reporting by Lujia Wang, lwang@opisnet.com
Editing by Chuan Ong, cong@opisnet.com
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Eight Japanese companies, including Sojitz Corporation, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, and Salesforce Japan, have announced a partnership with the country's Hamamatsu City to develop voluntary carbon credits under Verra's improved forest management (IFM) methodology, the firms said on Aug. 30.
The alliance, which also includes Temix Green, Maply, Fuyo General Lease, Green Carbon, and Sustainacraft, will begin verification for the issuance of credits under Verra's Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) program in September, using the IFM methodology for artificial cedar and cypress forests in the city.
This approach involves sustainable practices for logging and the elongation of logging cycles to enhance carbon sequestration. The participating companies bring experience in forestry, forestry administration, and digital platforms for creating and issuing forest-derived carbon credits, with networks to potential buyer companies internationally, the firms said.
The coastal Hamamatsu City in Shizuoka Prefecture has a 100,000-hectare forest area, one of the largest in Japan.
While Japan's carbon trading has traditionally centered around government-certified J-Credits, the partners highlight a rising demand from global corporations for credits that comply with international standards, such as Verra's Verified Carbon Standard (VCS).
There are currently no Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) projects registered in Japan, according to data from the Verra registry. However, three VCS projects are under validation or development in the country, including one by Hitachi Systems which employs the IFM methodology as well.
Forestry carbon credits generally fetch the highest premium within the domestic J-Credit market, last listed at 5,000 yen per metric ton ($34.30/mt) on Aug. 30, according to data from the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This is compared to J-Credits in other categories, such as renewable electricity (4,580 yen/mt) and energy conservation (1,600 yen/mt).
($1 = 145.9 Japanese yen)
-- Reporting by Melissa Goh, mgoh@opisnet.com; Editing by Chuan Ong,
cong@opisnet.com
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New Zealand is continuing to advance its international climate cooperation efforts as a way to potential cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to meet its climate targets, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts told OPIS in an interview on Aug. 20.
"We're looking for opportunities to work with other countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, on how we can achieve a win-win... in decarbonization and emissions reduction," said Watts on the sidelines of the Carbon Forestry 2024 Conference in Rotorua.
He noted that New Zealand has progressed green economy agreements or Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) with jurisdictions including Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand, and California, and is working closely with Pacific neighbors. New Zealand is seeking to expand its international green economy deals, including potentially with India and China, Watts said.
"The MOUs we have in place provide a pathway to enter into Article 6 agreements," Watts said. "New Zealand needs options to meet its 2030 NDC target, and that's very much front of mind for us, and is very challenging and difficult."
Under the Paris Agreement, New Zealand has committed to reducing net emissions by 50% below gross 2005 levels by 2030 as part of its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Meeting the NDC requires significantly deeper emissions reductions than the current domestic targets. New Zealand has previously estimated a shortfall of around 100 million metric tons (mt), necessitating offshore mitigation, with associated costs potentially scaling into the billions.
Panelists at the conference also earlier highlighted uncertainty around the government's strategy to close the gap between the domestic emissions budget and the NDC target, especially concerning the emissions trading scheme's (ETS) role. In a 2023 report, the government had said it was exploring options such as offshore mitigation activities, with a focus on the Asia-Pacific, and
linking the ETS to international markets that meet integrity standards.
While Watts did not provide a specific timeline or details on the government's strategy, he noted the importance of adding more substance to the agreements "as soon as practical". The government is first seeking to publish its second domestic emissions reduction plan by the end of 2024.
Domestically, Watts addressed recent adjustments to the ETS, where the government has significantly reduced the supply of New Zealand Units (NZUs) available for auction from 2025. This decision announced Aug. 20 aims to correct an oversupply that has led to depressed carbon prices and bring stability to the market, and saw units rally in price the days after.
"The key aspect is that we've got certainty in the market and that investors that are investing in asset classes such as forestry have a degree of certainty around what's going to happen in the future," Watts told OPIS. "It's a positive thing... in a macroeconomic environment where there's a lot of uncertainty."
OPIS assessed the NZU at a five-month high of NZ$61.13/mt ($38.02/mt) on Aug. 26, up 10.7% week-to-week as market participants reacted to the announcement.
New Zealand stakeholders have largely welcomed the government's decision to reduce auction supply, as OPIS reported, though some note outstanding concerns about the role of forestry NZU supply in the ETS. Clarity on land-use policies that could restrict the type of forestry that can enter the ETS stands as a
fundamental issue to be addressed, sources indicated.
The Carbon Forestry 2024 Conference was organized by Innovatek on Aug. 20-21.
($1 = NZ$1.61)
Reporting by Melissa Goh, mgoh@opisnet.com
Editing by Lujia Wang, lwang@opisnet.com
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India has installed a record 15 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity in the first half of 2024, an increase of 282% year to year, the highest half-yearly and annual installations to date, due to the commissioning of several previously delayed projects, according to research company Mercom India on August 22.
The Country added 5 GW of solar capacity in quarter two, an increase of 170% year to year from 1.8 GW, but down 49% quarter to quarter from 9.9 GW. According to Mercom, 4.3 GW of large-scale solar projects including 1.8 GW of open access projects were commissioned in Q2. Although large-scale capacity additions rose 191% year to year, they fell 55% quarter to quarter.
The reimposition of the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) from April 1 had impacted several open access projects in addition to grid connectivity and transmission infrastructure delays during the second quarter. Moreover, Q1 solar installations had surged ahead of the ALKMM reimposition, Priyadarshini Sanjay, Managing Director at Mercom India said. The states of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Karnataka led large-scale solar capacity additions in Q2 contributing 30%, 22% and 21% respectively of total quarterly installations.
India's cumulative installed solar capacity reached 87.2 GW as of June 2024 with utility-scale projects making up 87% and rooftop solar 13%. Solar comprises 19.5% of India's installed power capacity and made up 44% of the Country's total installed renewable energy capacity. The states of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Karnataka led the country's cumulative installed large-scale solar capacity at 29%, 15% and 14% respectively.
India has a large-scale solar project pipeline of 146 GW with another 104 GW of projects tendered and awaiting auction as of June 2024, but challenges arising from transmission infrastructure constraints particularly in Rajasthan remain, although hybrid and energy storage projects which utilize the same transmission lines may reduce these challenges, Sanjay said.
According to Mercom, 41.4 GW of tenders were announced in the first half of 2024, an increase of 51% from 27.5 GW year to year although in Q2, 10.7 GW of tenders were announced, down 22% from 13.6 GW year to year and 65% quarter to quarter at 30.7 GW. The drop in the volume of tenders announced in Q2 could be a result of the delay in the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) releasing the bidding trajectory for the year, and concerns over tepid response and higher bids after the ALMM reimposition, Sanjay said.
A total of 31.8 GW of projects were auctioned in the first half of 2024, an increase of 321% year to year from 27.5 GW over the same period last year, although in Q2, 6.7 GW of solar projects were auctioned, consistent year to year but down 73% from 25.1 GW quarter to quarter, according to Mercom.
India has set a goal of achieving 500 GW of renewable installed capacity, including 270 GW of solar capacity by 2030, according to the MNRE. In recent years, India has been building up its local solar supply chain capability. The Country has more than 50 GW of total ALMM listed module capacity which meets the Bureau of Indian Standards and MNRE's efficiency criteria.
Reporting by Serena Seng, sseng@opisnet.com
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Swiss manufacturer Meyer Burger has announced it is not moving forward with the development of a 2 GW cell factory in Colorado, saying the plans are "no longer financially feasible."
The company's German cell plant, previously slated for retirement, "will continue to form the backbone of Meyer Burger's solar cell supply," the company said in a statement Monday.
The company said it will now return its focus to its new 1.4 GW module plant currently ramping up in Goodyear, Arizona. A tentative plan for a 0.7 GW expansion there has also been shelved but "remains an option."
Continuing to supply Goodyear's production lines with cells produced in Germany is "the most economical option" in the current market, Meyer Burger said.
The Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit (PTC) established by 2022's Inflation Reduction Act has led to many announcements of new solar module and cell factories in the U.S., but a handful of those cell plant plans have since been walked back, with manufacturers citing financial difficulties.
"The debt financing previously sought through the monetization of 45X tax credits will continue to be pursued on a reduced scale, tailored to module production in the U.S.," Meyer Burger said.
When its Colorado Springs cell plant was initially announced in the summer of 2023, Meyer Burger expected to have it up and running by the end of this year. In a June press release announcing the start of production at the Arizona HJT module plant, the company said updated timing for the cell plant was contingent on closing of 45x financing.
As a result of this "revised strategy," a partnership with an unnamed U.S. technology company, first teased in a June press release, has fallen through. The company expected to finalize the agreement by the third quarter of this year, in what was aimed at developing "a solar module that is manufactured in
the U.S. with an increasing share of domestic components."
It's unclear how the mothballed plans could complicate other contracts. In June, Meyer Burger announced a three-year offtake deal with a "major U.S. energy company" to buy up to 1.75 GW of modules starting in early 2026. A two-year extension option would become effective upon the completion of the cell plant's financing, Meyer Burger said.
Reporting by Colt Shaw, cshaw@opisnet.com
Editing by Aaron Alford, aalford@opisnet.com
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Carbon credit issuances from nature-based projects registered with Verra have fallen sharply so far this year, with REDD+ taking a greater hit than removal project types like afforestation and coastal environment restoration, records show.
Since the start of 2022, Verra-registered REDD+ projects issued over 110 million credits. So far this year, Verra has issued 4.2 million credits after issuing over 44.7 million credits in 2023.
REDD+ stands for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.
By comparison, Verra-registered removal projects like afforestation, reforestation and revegetation and Blue Carbon projects, which restore coastal environments, produced 22.58 million credits since 2022, including 2.38 million credits so far this year. In 2023, Verra issued over 8 million removal credits.
Toronto-based Carbon Streaming has signed streaming agreements with numerous nature-based carbon projects, including both REDD+ and ARR initiatives. During a second-quarter earnings call Wednesday, Carbon Streaming interim Chief Executive Officer Christian Milau attributed slow issuances to backlogs at Verra.
The accusation is a common refrain among developers and investors, but a Verra spokesperson recently told OPIS that fewer projects have requested issuances this year and that previous backlogs had been cleared.
A range of quality exists among nature-based removal projects, as it does with REDD+, but ARR and Blue Carbon credits tend to command higher values. OPIS has heard trades of volumes of 2,000 REDD+ credits or more ranging from $1/mt to $12/mt in recent weeks. By contrast, trades for ARR and Blue Carbon credits were heard between $5/mt and $30/mt.
OPIS calculated the REDD+ Vintage 2021 Credits Average at $8.56/mt on Monday. Blue Carbon V21 and ARR V21 Credits Averages were calculated at $31.202/mt and $21.677/mt, respectively.
Milau, speaking on the earnings call, said carbon markets had been difficult to predict in recent years and that investors are looking primarily for high-quality nature-based removal credits.
Carbon Streaming's investment strategy "is starting to prove out," Milau said. "The focus on good quality projects recently with scalable growth, removals, Article 6 and some committed offtakes I think is the way forward here."
"We have to also remember, long-term removal projects take some time to gestate and get to the cash flowing stage," Milau continued. "So I think it would be naïve of us to completely ignore the avoidance market. I do think in the long term, cashflow from removal projects will be superior and they have a longevity potentially that some of the avoidance projects don't have. But that business also can't just wait the 5 to 7 years it takes a tree to grow."
Reporting by Henry Kronk, hkronk@opisnet.com
Editing by Jeremy Rakes, jrakes@opisnet.com and Michael Kelly, mkelly@opisnet.com
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China-based solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturer Beyondsun Green Energy has begun operation at its new intelligent manufacturing facility, the first in Zhongwei City, Ningxia, producing the company's first N-Power-Pro series N-type TOPCon photovoltaic module, Beyondsun said on August 1.
The facility at an investment of 3 billion yuan ($417.75 million) will be built in two phases. Phase one involves the establishment of a 3 gigawatt (GW) high-efficiency N-type TOPCon module production plant, while Phase two involves the establishment of a 2 GW high-efficiency Heterojunction (HJT) module production plant, a 3 GW aluminum alloy frame production line, and a 3 gigawatt hour (GWh) energy storage battery production line.
This is the first time the company has expanded its manufacturing facilities, since the company ramped up its module production capacity to 3.6 GW and launched N-type high-efficiency TOPCon modules in 2022, according to the company's website. Beyondsun currently has a module production capacity of 5
GW.
According to industry sources, new production facilities that have come on-stream in recent months have added pressure to a solar industry struggling with overcapacity and low prices. In the first half of 2024, China added about 21.5 GW of new module production capacity with more than 10 GW of new plants expected to come online in the second half of the year, an industry source said.
The new production facilities in addition to capacity expansions by module manufacturers this year have led to intense price competition amongst module manufacturers, as they compete for new orders resulting in TOPCon module monthly average prices falling to $0.097 per watt peak (wp) in July, down 14.2% from January, according to OPIS data.
As competition intensifies and profit margins shrink, coupled with the high capital expenditures and slow growth returns of investing in new manufacturing facilities, several new projects have been put on hold or divested as solar PV manufacturers chose to conserve cash and focus resources on weathering a market storm. According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), about 20 GW of new module capacity was put on hold in the first half of 2024.
The weak demand and sluggish growth in the module industry has a more pronounced negative impact on the cells industry as several cell manufacturers put on hold or terminated new capacity expansion plans amid the supply glut in both the cells and module sector, a market source said.
Jiangxi Haiyuan Composites divested its investment in the 15 GW N-type high-efficiency cells and 3 GW high-efficiency module production facility in Chuzhou City earlier in March. The project was slated to produce 10 GW of high-efficiency cells in Phase one and 5 GW HJT cells and 3 GW high-efficiency modules in Phase two. Jiangxi Haiyuan Composites divested 100% of the equity of its wholly-owned subsidiary Chuzhou Saiwei Energy Technology to Zhejiang Aixu Solar Technology for 38 million.
In March, Lingda Group terminated its investment in the 20 GW high-efficiency cells production facility in Tongling. The project was originally slated to produce 10 GW of TOPCon high-efficiency cells in Phase one and 5 GW TOPCon high-efficiency cells and 5 GW HJT cells in Phase two.
In August, East China Heavy Machinery Company announced that the company's board of directors reviewed and approved the proposal to terminate the investment in the construction of the Bozhou 10 GW N-type high-efficiency solar cell production base project due to the downturn in the PV industry.
As the solar PV industry struggles under the weight of overcapacity, capacity expansion projects that are in stages of construction are left with little choice but to soldier on. These projects that come on-stream in the next few months will be competing in a very saturated market with low profit returns, sources said. More capacity expansion projects are expected to be put on hold in the coming months as the industry waits out the PV market downturn.
Reporting by Serena Seng, sseng@opisnet.com
© 2024 Oil Price Information Service, LLC. All rights reserved.
The Washington state Office of Financial Management estimates $3.8 billion in lost revenue from canceled emissions allowance auctions through fiscal years 2025-2029 if citizens vote to repeal the
state's cap-and-invest program in November, according to a new fiscal impact statement released this week.
The Washington Secretary of State published the statement along with new ballot materials this week for the vote on Initiative 2117 in November, which would repeal the state's cap-and-invest emissions
trading program if passed.
Initiative 2117 would also prohibit the state from enacting other similar emissions allowance trade systems if passed. The citizen-led initiative to the legislature collected signatures in 2023, the cap-and-
invest program's inaugural year, and was certified in January to appear on the general election ballot.
According to SurveyUSA polling results published this week by the Seattle Times, 48% of likely Washington voters were "certain to vote yes" on Initiative 2117 while 34% of respondents were "certain to vote no," and 18% were "not certain." SurveyUSA polled 708 likely voters from July 10-13.
The fiscal impact statement released this week detailed potential reductions to state expenditures and revenues from carbon allowance auctions under the initiative.
"If approved by voters, Initiative 2117 will reduce state revenue from carbon allowance auctions by $3.8 billion and reduce state expenditures by $1.7 billion between the effective date of the initiative and June 30, 2029," according to the statement.
If successful, the initiative's effective date would be Dec. 5, meaning the fourth quarterly Washington Carbon Allowance auction scheduled for Dec. 4 would no longer take place, the report stated.
Auction certification and other processes would extend past the date Initiative 2117 potentially would take effect, the Office of Financial Management said.
"Under the initiative, the last auction would take place on September 4, 2024," the statement read. "The three remaining auctions scheduled in state fiscal year 2025 would be canceled."
The cap-and-invest auction 7 on Sept. 4 will offer 7.94 million WCAs during the current portion, without an advance offering. The previous auction on June 5 sold out of 7.8 million V23 and V24 WCAs and settled at $29.92/mt. The auction did not sell out of the advance portion of V27 allowances.
The fiscal impact report noted reduced funding would go to projects and programs including "transportation emissions reduction, transit, pedestrian safety; ferry and other transportation electrification; air quality improvement; renewable and clean energy; grid modernization and building decarbonization; increasing the climate resilience of the state's waters, forests and other ecosystems; fire prevention and forest health; and restoring and improving salmon habitat."
The six quarterly and two allowance price containment reserve WCA auctions have generated $2.15 billion in funds since the cap-and-invest program began in 2023, according to the state Department of Ecology.
"The 2024 supplemental transportation, operating and capital budgets identify which programs and projects would and would not be eligible for this funding if the initiative passes," according to the
statement. "Spending authority of $1.7 billion in state fiscal year 2025 would no longer exist because the budget appropriations would be eliminated along with repeal of the accounts."
The report also said under the initiative, Ecology would undertake rulemaking from 2025-2027 to "repeal Climate Commitment Act rules and to amend rules regarding greenhouse gas emission
reporting."
WCA secondary market prices deflated during the first 2024 quarter following news of the Initiative 2117 appearing on ballots in the fall.
OPIS WCA assessed prices in 2024 bottomed out on March 15 at $29.50/mt for December and $27.80/mt for the prompt month before slowly regaining ground.
Washington state, California and Quebec in late March announced they were working to link carbon markets. Ecology held a listening session Monday on environmental justice and the potential linkage
of cap-and-invest to California and Quebec's joint carbon market.
Ecology staff earlier this month reiterated a potential linkage agreement could be enacted by late 2025.
The Secretary of State this week also published a ballot measure Explanatory Statement and Public Investment Impact Disclosure.
Initiative 2117 will appear on the ballot as written: "Initiative Measure No. 2117 concerns carbon tax credit trading. This measure would prohibit state agencies from imposing any type of carbon tax credit trading, and repeal legislation establishing a cap and invest program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This measure would decrease funding for investments in transportation, clean air, renewable energy, conservation, and emissions-reduction. Should this measure be enacted into law?"
Reporting by Slade Rand, srand@opisnet.com
Editing by Mayra Cruz, mcruz@opisnet.com and Michael Kelly, mkelly@opisnet.com
© 2024 Oil Price Information Service, LLC. All rights reserved.
Reports and announcements published over the last week have crystallised both the challenges facing the buildout of carbon capture storage (CCS) projects in the UK, but also how the technology retains widespread political support, including from the country's newly elected government.
The British government and carbon capture use and storage (CCUS) project developers in the UK are just weeks away from making final investment decisions to take CCUS projects forward, but the timetable for their completion is slipping and "numerous technical issues remain", the country's official
spending watchdog warned last Tuesday.
The National Audit Office, which scrutinises government spending on behalf of the UK's parliament, noted that the government's language about delivering the first wave of CCS projects hinted at likely delays.
The British government had originally aimed to have two 'Track-1' CCS clusters in the northwest and east of England operational by the end of 2026, with a target of capturing and storing upwards of 15.5 million metric tons of carbon per annum under the North and Irish Seas. However, that ambition has already been scaled back to storing 8.5 million mt/year at a later date, the NAO said.
"By May 2022 [the UK's Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ)] was working towards the Track-1 clusters starting operations by the end of 2027, which remains its target. More recently, DESNZ has adapted this target to 'support' two clusters by the mid-2020s, indicating that it expects them to
begin operating later," said the NAO report.
Those Track-1 clusters are the HyNet cluster, which includes a project to capture emissions from the Essar Oil-operated 200,000 barrels per day Stanlow oil refinery, and the East Coast Cluster, which would capture emissions from the Phillips 66-operated 221,000-b/d Humber refinery and the Prax-operated
113,000-b/d Lindsey refinery. The two clusters include several other CCS projects.
"DESNZ is currently considering whether achieving [final investment decisions] across all eight [CCS] projects by September 2024 is feasible. It therefore expects to achieve FID with at least some of the Track-1 projects by September 2024, with the rest reaching FID in 2025," the public spending watchdog said last week.
The NAO suggested that staggering the delivery of projects in the clusters had both potential advantages and disadvantages in achieving value for taxpayer investments: "It could lead to fewer projects making use of common transport and storage infrastructure. But it may also lead to earlier [emissions] reductions...In addition, DESNZ considers this approach may prevent more mature projects needing to retender contracts if they are delayed by waiting for other projects to be ready to take final investment decisions."
Delay to CCS Projects Could Boost Carbon Prices
The British government has set a target to capture 20-30 million mt of carbon by 2030, with four clusters operational by the end of the decade. Meeting that goal would result in the capture of carbon equivalent to a quarter of the 96.8 million mt emitted last year by installations and airlines subject to the UK's Emissions Trading System.
Capturing upwards of 30 million mt of carbon every year would consequently put a significant dent in demand for UK emissions allowances (UKA), the pollution permits which must be purchased by industrial emitters covered by the cap-and-trade ETS.
But delays in bringing CCS projects online could have expensive ramifications later in the decade and into the 2030s for those emitters, especially polluters that are unable to pass the full cost of carbon onto end-consumers. In that CCS-delayed scenario, demand for UKAs will be higher than expected, while the
number of annual allowances available for purchase in the ETS will have shrunk.
Although British carbon prices have been in the doldrums for more than a year -- OPIS assessed the benchmark December 2024 UK emissions allowance at £39.375 ($50.51) on Monday, down from the record settle of £97.75 on August 19, 2022 -- most analysts forecast that prices will be in triple digits by the end of the decade. Such a price would force the country's largest installations to spend almost half a billion pounds a year on UKAs if they do not decarbonize.
Technical Issues Highlighted by Report
The NAO report warned that significant practical challenges must be addressed to deliver CCS in the UK.
"Numerous technical issues remain...Pipelines need to be built to connect [CCS facilities] to onshore terminals and then to undersea sites," the NAO said, adding that there was "uncertainty" about "how effective the solvents that projects will use to capture carbon will prove and whether proposed storage
areas are viable."
The nation's official spending watchdog also examined the institutional capacity of the British government to negotiate effectively with project developers, pointing out that the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero had struggled to meet recruitment targets for its CCUS Directorate employees.
"When the Directorate was established, 51.5 full-time equivalent (FTE) staff -- less than half the 103.5 FTE that DESNZ assessed it would need for 2021-22 -- were in post," said the NAO. "DESNZ considers this difference reflects the time it takes to fill vacancies. The number of staff required increased sharply,
particularly as Track-1 negotiations started. By 2023-24 DESNZ calculated that it needed 206.5 FTE, compared to a staffing level of 144.5 FTE at the start of that year."
The report did not look at whether construction contractors undertaking CCS projects might also face staffing-related issues. The UK has a "tight labor market" ExxonMobil's senior project manager Brian Talley told OPIS in April, while many industry insiders have said that demands on contractors are likely
to rise because of other energy transition-related projects.
Alex Milward, director of carbon capture utilization and storage at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, told OPIS during COP28 in Dubai at the end of last year that the government is alert to the possibility of worker-related issues causing delays.
"I think there is obviously a potential bottleneck which we're working extremely hard [to avoid]," said Milward, referring to the skills base. "We map where we think the pinch points are and where the capacities are...Certainly if there is a critical element in the supply chain that's not there, then the
whole program can get [backed up], so we're monitoring it very closely and hopefully avoiding the bottlenecks," he added.
In response to the NAO report, Ruth Herbert, chief executive officer of the Carbon Capture and Storage Association which advocates for the technology's development across Europe, said: "The NAO has noted that completing negotiations to support the Track-1 [CCS cluster] projects will be a very significant milestone in signalling the programme's commercial feasibility and the government's commitment to CCUS. We are pleased that due to continued investment from industry, Track-1 financial investment decisions are on track to be taken by September. Keeping to this timetable will demonstrate to investors that the UK is an attractive location for the net zero industries of the future."
"CCS on power generation is set to play a key role in enabling the Net Zero Power target and industries across the UK, such as cement manufacturing, hydrogen production and energy from waste are relying on the deployment of carbon capture to reduce their emissions," Herbert added.
Political Support Remains after Change of Government
The UK's general election on July 4 resulted in the Labour Party coming to power, but it is not obvious that there will be any change of approach to CCS from the new government in the short-term.
One of the new government's first announcements referenced forthcoming investment in the technology through a partnership between Great British Energy -- a new state-owned company with £8.3 billion of public money -- and the Crown Estate, which manages the £16 billion property land and seabed portfolio of the British monarch. The partnership "will also help boost new technologies such as
carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, wave and tidal energy," the announcement said, without offering further details.
The previous Conservative government pledged £1 billion in 2020 to help develop four CCS clusters by 2030, and it went further in its budget of March 2023 by pledging £20 billion of support over a 20 year period.
OPIS asked the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero last week if the new government will maintain that commitment.
"We are taking immediate action to implement our plan for clean power by 2030, while continuing to develop cutting-edge technologies like carbon capture, usage and storage, which the NAO recognises will help to decarbonise our economy," a spokesperson for DESNZ said in response.
"This technology is vital to boost our energy independence...The initial cluster projects are nearing the first financial investment decisions this year, which are expected to create jobs and bring in billions of public and private investment into our industrial heartlands," the government added.
Although Rachel Reeves, the new chancellor in charge of the UK's public finances, put a few large transport infrastructure projects on ice on Monday, there was no suggestion that the Labour party's support for CCS will change. CCS projects also command strong backing from trade unions affiliated with Labour, and several members of the new cabinet were photographed before the election visiting CCS project exhibitions at business and political conferences.
Reeves has backed the development of the technology in several public statements, noting at a business conference on February 1 this year that C-Capture -- a CCS technology company developing amine- and nitrogen-free solvents -- is located in her own Leeds West constituency and "at the frontier
of the energy transition,"
On a visit to the company's premises last year, Reeves hailed "the incredible work taking place [at the site] on carbon capture and storage. It's these types of businesses that show the huge potential we have as a region and a country to be a world leader in the industries of the future."
Reporting by Anthony Lane, alane@opisnet.com
Editing by Yazdi Merchant, ymerchant@opisnet.com
© 2024 Oil Price Information Service, LLC. All rights reserved.
Major listed solar manufacturers in China are expecting net losses for the first half of 2024 after price drops across the solar supply chain wiped out net profits made a year ago, according to company
announcements over the past week.
Longi Green Energy Technology, among the world's top three solar module sellers, is expecting a net loss of 4.8 billion yuan ($673 million) to 5.5 billion yuan for 1H-2024, a sharp reversal from the 9.18 billion yuan net profit it made a year ago.
Tongwei Solar, a major polysilicon manufacturer who is also a top five module seller, expects a net loss of 3 billion yuan to 3.3 billion yuan for 1H-2024 after having reported a net profit of 13.27 billion
yuan a year ago.
JA Solar, another top five module seller, expects a net loss of 0.8 billion to 1.2 billion yuan compared to net profit of 4.8 billion yuan over the same period.
TCL Zhonghuan, a major wafer producer that also sells modules, is expecting a net loss of 2.9 to 3.2 billion yuan for the first half of the year compared to a net profit of 4.53 billion yuan a year ago.
All four companies attributed the reversals to imbalances in supply-demand fundamentals and the resulting price falls across the solar supply chain.
JA Solar, Longi and Tongwei all noted that their module sale volumes rose sharply from a year ago but net losses were incurred nonetheless due to the severe price falls.
Prices of polysilicon in the Chinese domestic market averaged 53.528 yuan per kilogram (kg) during the first half of this year, just slightly over a third of the 180.584 yuan/kg averaged a year ago, according to OPIS data.
Prices of FOB China Mono Perc modules meanwhile averaged $0.108 per watt peak (wp) during the first half of this year, less than half the $0.227/wp a year ago.
Because supply in the market has been far outpacing demand, Longi also expects to set aside a high provision for inventory impairment.
The manufacturers did not say when they expect the market malaise to end.
But TCL and Longi said they would work on releasing new products and using advanced manufacturing methods to gain competitive advantages.
($1 = CNY 7.13)
Reporting by Hanwei Wu, hwu@opisnet.com
Editing by Chuan Ong, cong@opisnet.com
© 2024 Oil Price Information Service, LLC. All rights reserved.
OPIS assess prices for Los Angeles and San Francisco renewable diesel fuel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). These new assessments bring transparency to the growing renewable fuels market in the U.S. West Coast. They are based on confirmed price intelligence reported by verified market participants.
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